Stop the wishful thinking: The Philippines and ‘joint development’ in the South China Sea
There was a time when an argument for trying could at least be made. If Beijing was serious about its long-held preference for bilateralism and for “shelving sovereignty disputes in favor of joint development,” the reasoning went, it had every incentive to build one successful case with the Philippines and use it as a model […]
Manila’s new ASEAN Maritime Center will need focus to move beyond symbolism
Speaking in Cebu last month, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines announced his intention to establish a new ASEAN Maritime Center to be hosted in the Philippines. Manila currently holds ASEAN’s annually rotating chairmanship and the timing suggests that the Philippines, as an archipelagic state that has long been at the sharp end of […]
Compellence and East Asia’s quiet stumble toward crisis and disorder
Late May and early June 2026 witnessed a flurry of activity over waters in the western Pacific Ocean east of Taiwan and the Philippines. Much as conventional wisdom continues to treat the East China Sea, Yellow Sea/West Sea, Taiwan, and the South China Sea as separate and distinct, these events underscore their interconnectedness. Sea lanes, […]
Before ships collide, narratives already have
A decade after the South China Sea arbitration ruling, the dispute is no longer contested only at sea or in tribunals. At an alarming pace, it is increasingly fought through information warfare on social media platforms, where algorithms dictate visibility and mis/disinformation travels far beyond the disputed waters themselves. A search for “South China Sea” […]
Tuned to perfection: China’s irregular warfare at sea
China is sure to be among the keenest students of the Iran conflict. Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz, even when met by a US counter-blockade, had a powerful impact on the rest of the world. Beijing’s ultimate goal of taking over the First Island Chain rests on controlling the seas and key waterways […]